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Debate will always anger as to which player is the "greatest of all time", or the GOAT to make use of the American parlance. & this time last year, after he secured the only Grand Slam to elude him - the Italian Open - & then won a record 15th Major here at Wimbledon a month later, Roger Federer was most people's choice.
A 16th Grand Slam in Australia followed in early 2010, which was also his 23rd consecutive appearance in a semi-final or better at a major - an brilliant achievement. Together with his arch nemesis Rafael Nadal in the midst of an 11-month slump without a title, it appeared only a matter of time before the Swiss maestro broke yet another brilliant record of longevity - Pete Sampras' total of 286 weeks as world No.1.
& then the tide began to alter - as it did back in 2008 when Rafa thrashed him in straight sets at Roland Garros then followed it up by doing the "Borg double" & stealing Federer's Wimbledon crown off him in an epic final which went on deep in to the evening. After success in Melbourne, Federer went in to a relative slump (by his lofty standards). More worryingly for a player who has built a reputation for mental fortitude, he was failing to take match points. He squandered two of them against Marcos Baghdatis in a third-round exit at Indian Wells - the first time he had failed to win after holding a match point since the epic Rome final of 2006 (where he lost to... Nadal, of coursework).
Another Masters event & another defeat followed, again with match point squandered. Tomas Berdych dumped him out of Miami in the fourth round, & then the tour moved to the European clay. & while Nadal managed a "red slam", winning in Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid & Roland Garros, the Federer slide continued. He decided not to go to Monaco then lost his opener in Rome - admittedly to a resurgent Ernests Gulbis - but he was beginning to generate the wrong kind of records. This was the first time that he had lost his season-opener on red dirt since 2000, & the first time since 2002 that he had fallen at two consecutive Masters 1000s before the quarter-finals since 2002.
He went to Estoril to try to build up some confidence, but even that failed to work as he fell to Albert Montanes in the semis. At Madrid he made the final, but that man Nadal stood in his way. & then along came Robin Soderling in the Italian Open quarter-finals. Going in to the match, Federer had a 12-0 record against the large Swede, a 24th consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals & a record-equalling 286th week as world no.1 on the line - & lost it all.
Gallows humour was the order of the day in his press conference ("I now have a consecutive quarter-final streak going, right?!") but it was clear that all was not well in the world of Federer. Confidence breeds confidence, & while Nadal has it in abundance after winning 5,000 rating points in the coursework of the European spring, Federer's is falling quick, a lot so that he even failed to defend his Halle grass title last week.
Gone are the days when Federer's basically superior level of tennis was to beat any given opponent on any given day. While he's suffered on & off at the hands of Nadal for half a decade, there now appears to be a different type of player able to knocking the Swiss out of his rhythm. Giant hitters such as Soderling, Gulbis & Juan Martin del Potro was one time meat & drink to Federer, but nowadays they can feast on his second service & put him immediately on the back foot. "It can be disagreeable because you have less to do & you cannot play your game, you cannot impose yourself," said Federer of his clashes with the more powerful players. "If you serve 225 - 230 kph, you can still hit through the court on the serve irrespective of the conditions. I may be lacking those 5 to 10ks additional to hit through a man on the serve."
As at the Italian, he's a heck of a lot to play for in SW19 over the approaching fortnight. A seventh title (to equal Sampras' record) & 2,000 rating points to defend here & 4,200 in total by the finish of the US Open (& while he can only lose points, Nadal can only gain them after spending months on the sidelines last year). There is also of coursework the fact that Centre Court is his own private garden. Federer has played two finals since 2003, winning two of them.
When Nadal was in the process of taking the rating from him at the Italian, the Swiss was sober in his assessment. "I'm not going to support his opponents in the quarters, semis or whatever here so that he doesn't take the No.1 spot off me," he said as the Majorcan homed in & finally took the top spot together with his defeat of Soderling in the final. "The best player deserves to have the top rating & at the moment, he is the best player."
Wimbledon however means everything to him. When Nadal had the audacity to steal his crown in 2008, Federer let his guard slip in the post-match conference. "Losing at the Italian meant nothing compared with this. This... it is a catastrophe," was his miserable assessment. Defeat on the hallowed SW19 lawns in early July (or heaven forbid in late June) would be of similar proportions.
Victory however is very much in his grasp. Last year, he proved that he still has the all-round game to defeat the best that two opponents can throw at him over the space of Wimbledon fortnight, outlasting Andy Roddick in a classic final. This is grass, & this is best of two sets - both of which speak in favour of Federer. He is definitely going to must work for it though. After a potentially calm first week, his run-in from the quarter-finals onwards could read Tomas Berdych, Roddick & Nadal, or alternatively Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic/Novak Djokovic & Soderling/Andy Murray.
While Federer is one of the greatest players of all time (& plenty would argue he is the greatest ever), the elderly adage says that you are only as nice as your last game. The man from Basle will be hoping that his last game on grass this year comes on Sunday 4 July, & ends with him kneeling in joy on Centre Court...
A 16th Grand Slam in Australia followed in early 2010, which was also his 23rd consecutive appearance in a semi-final or better at a major - an brilliant achievement. Together with his arch nemesis Rafael Nadal in the midst of an 11-month slump without a title, it appeared only a matter of time before the Swiss maestro broke yet another brilliant record of longevity - Pete Sampras' total of 286 weeks as world No.1.
& then the tide began to alter - as it did back in 2008 when Rafa thrashed him in straight sets at Roland Garros then followed it up by doing the "Borg double" & stealing Federer's Wimbledon crown off him in an epic final which went on deep in to the evening. After success in Melbourne, Federer went in to a relative slump (by his lofty standards). More worryingly for a player who has built a reputation for mental fortitude, he was failing to take match points. He squandered two of them against Marcos Baghdatis in a third-round exit at Indian Wells - the first time he had failed to win after holding a match point since the epic Rome final of 2006 (where he lost to... Nadal, of coursework).
Another Masters event & another defeat followed, again with match point squandered. Tomas Berdych dumped him out of Miami in the fourth round, & then the tour moved to the European clay. & while Nadal managed a "red slam", winning in Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid & Roland Garros, the Federer slide continued. He decided not to go to Monaco then lost his opener in Rome - admittedly to a resurgent Ernests Gulbis - but he was beginning to generate the wrong kind of records. This was the first time that he had lost his season-opener on red dirt since 2000, & the first time since 2002 that he had fallen at two consecutive Masters 1000s before the quarter-finals since 2002.
He went to Estoril to try to build up some confidence, but even that failed to work as he fell to Albert Montanes in the semis. At Madrid he made the final, but that man Nadal stood in his way. & then along came Robin Soderling in the Italian Open quarter-finals. Going in to the match, Federer had a 12-0 record against the large Swede, a 24th consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals & a record-equalling 286th week as world no.1 on the line - & lost it all.
Gallows humour was the order of the day in his press conference ("I now have a consecutive quarter-final streak going, right?!") but it was clear that all was not well in the world of Federer. Confidence breeds confidence, & while Nadal has it in abundance after winning 5,000 rating points in the coursework of the European spring, Federer's is falling quick, a lot so that he even failed to defend his Halle grass title last week.
Gone are the days when Federer's basically superior level of tennis was to beat any given opponent on any given day. While he's suffered on & off at the hands of Nadal for half a decade, there now appears to be a different type of player able to knocking the Swiss out of his rhythm. Giant hitters such as Soderling, Gulbis & Juan Martin del Potro was one time meat & drink to Federer, but nowadays they can feast on his second service & put him immediately on the back foot. "It can be disagreeable because you have less to do & you cannot play your game, you cannot impose yourself," said Federer of his clashes with the more powerful players. "If you serve 225 - 230 kph, you can still hit through the court on the serve irrespective of the conditions. I may be lacking those 5 to 10ks additional to hit through a man on the serve."
As at the Italian, he's a heck of a lot to play for in SW19 over the approaching fortnight. A seventh title (to equal Sampras' record) & 2,000 rating points to defend here & 4,200 in total by the finish of the US Open (& while he can only lose points, Nadal can only gain them after spending months on the sidelines last year). There is also of coursework the fact that Centre Court is his own private garden. Federer has played two finals since 2003, winning two of them.
When Nadal was in the process of taking the rating from him at the Italian, the Swiss was sober in his assessment. "I'm not going to support his opponents in the quarters, semis or whatever here so that he doesn't take the No.1 spot off me," he said as the Majorcan homed in & finally took the top spot together with his defeat of Soderling in the final. "The best player deserves to have the top rating & at the moment, he is the best player."
Wimbledon however means everything to him. When Nadal had the audacity to steal his crown in 2008, Federer let his guard slip in the post-match conference. "Losing at the Italian meant nothing compared with this. This... it is a catastrophe," was his miserable assessment. Defeat on the hallowed SW19 lawns in early July (or heaven forbid in late June) would be of similar proportions.
Victory however is very much in his grasp. Last year, he proved that he still has the all-round game to defeat the best that two opponents can throw at him over the space of Wimbledon fortnight, outlasting Andy Roddick in a classic final. This is grass, & this is best of two sets - both of which speak in favour of Federer. He is definitely going to must work for it though. After a potentially calm first week, his run-in from the quarter-finals onwards could read Tomas Berdych, Roddick & Nadal, or alternatively Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic/Novak Djokovic & Soderling/Andy Murray.
While Federer is one of the greatest players of all time (& plenty would argue he is the greatest ever), the elderly adage says that you are only as nice as your last game. The man from Basle will be hoping that his last game on grass this year comes on Sunday 4 July, & ends with him kneeling in joy on Centre Court...
